Model vs market
Fixed probability scale · 0–100%No verified probabilities loaded yet.
Markets
Betting Lab
Betting lab
Edge vs. consensus across every market we track.
Betting Lab
See the model, read the market. Compare a verified outcome forecast with a timestamped market snapshot, and inspect where they differ, what the prices represent and whether the comparison is valid.
Snapshots follow the server's refresh schedule. Reloading reuses the current cache; this page does not poll for new prices.
Home team
Model probability —
VSSelect a fixture
Away team
Model probability —
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Probabilities appear after the model and fixture are verified.
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Source, capture time and price type appear here.
View plansThe probability comparison
Gap = model − market · percentage points| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap | Observed decimal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading the selected fixture… | ||||
Checking model evidence and market compatibility.
Model estimate. Fair or projected odds are analytical outputs, not prices Scoutics offers for a wager. Third-party market prices, when shown, may be delayed and should be verified with their stated source. See disclaimer.
Every Price in One Place
Stop flipping between apps. The Lab lines up each sportsbook’s price for the same game next to our forecast, with the time every price was captured.
- Side-by-side sportsbook prices, with the best price
- Model against the sportsbook consensus or Polymarket
- Expected value per $1 when a quote can actually be bet
What the Lab Shows
Model vs Market
Our verified forecast and the market’s chance for every outcome, on a fixed 0–100% scale, and the gap between them.
Time-Stamped Prices
Every snapshot names its source, capture time and price type. Snapshots follow the server’s refresh schedule; the page does not poll.
Try a Hypothetical
Enter your own probabilities to compare against the forecast. They are labelled hypothetical and never create a tradable quote.
Research, Not Promises
A gap between our forecast and the market is something to explore, not verified profit. Our testing has not yet established a reliable forecasting advantage over market prices.
A public forecast record
Every forecast saved before kickoff and scored after the final.
Plain findings
What our testing shows, including the results that don’t favour us.
Create your free Scoutics account today
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