EPL Premier League
Your matchups

Pick a fixture, run the simulator, and explore the pitch in detail.

156
Sims today
1
Live fixture
+12%
Edge vs world
68%
Win rate
engine.py · physics.py · tactics.py · sim/state

SoccerSimulator

90′ match · 5767 sim frames @ 24 FPS · 14 styles in STYLE_PROFILES · 67 TEAM_STYLE_MAP entries

CRY · Vertical runners MCI · Tiki-taka snapshot_state
Matchweek 2 starts Aug 28–31, 2026

Premier League 2026/27, simulated before a ball is kicked.

Scoutics runs Monte Carlo simulations against live market odds for every Premier League fixture, surfacing expected value across moneyline, goals, corners, and player markets — updated weekly all season.

See matchweek 2 edge How it works
Teams tracked
20
Fixtures this season
380
Matchweek 2 kickoff
Aug 28–31, 2026
Markets covered
12

Matchweek 2 fixtures

Matchweek 2
# Home Away Kickoff Home ML Draw Away ML Edge
1 Manchester United Ipswich Town Aug 30 · 15:30 UTC -231 +398 +883 70%
2 Chelsea Brighton & Hove Albion Aug 30 · 13:00 UTC -100 +285 +318 50%
3 Liverpool Nottingham Forest Aug 29 · 11:30 UTC +128 +314 +212 44%
4 Coventry City Hull City Aug 29 · 14:00 UTC +156 +340 +162 39%
5 Tottenham Newcastle United Aug 29 · 16:30 UTC +167 +350 +148 37%
6 Leeds Brentford Aug 30 · 13:00 UTC +220 +391 +107 31%
7 Bournemouth Everton Aug 29 · 14:00 UTC +233 +400 +100 30%
8 Sunderland Fulham Aug 30 · 13:00 UTC +401 +489 -171 19%
9 Aston Villa Arsenal Aug 31 · 19:00 UTC +423 +497 -179 18%
10 Crystal Palace Manchester City Aug 28 · 19:00 UTC +697 +577 -266 12%
Fixture dates and kickoff times per the official 2026/27 Premier League schedule. Moneyline prices are model-fair estimates from the Scoutics win model, not verified book quotes.

This week's model leans

Matchweek 2 · Premier League
# Match Selection Ref. odds Fair prob Model diff Ref. EV
Ranked from Scoutics model probabilities and refreshed every 6 hours. Reference prices, model difference and reference EV are not verified bookmaker market quotes.

How the engine works

1

Ingest live data

Results, form, injuries, and market odds pulled in continuously across all 20 Premier League clubs.

2

Simulate the match

Each fixture runs thousands of times through a Monte Carlo model to build a full outcome distribution.

3

Surface the edge

Simulated probabilities are compared against market odds and ranked by expected value.

Standings

TeamPldPts
1 Arsenal — —
2 Aston Villa — —
3 Bournemouth — —
4 Brentford — —
5 Brighton & Hove Albion — —
6 Chelsea — —
7 Coventry City — —
8 Crystal Palace — —
9 Everton — —
10 Fulham — —
11 Hull City — —
12 Ipswich Town — —
13 Leeds United — —
14 Liverpool — —
15 Manchester City — —
16 Manchester United — —
17 Newcastle United — —
18 Nottingham Forest — —
19 Sunderland — —
20 Tottenham Hotspur — —
Loading completed-game standings…

Golden Boot watch

1
Erling HaalandManchester City
—
2
Mohamed SalahLiverpool
—
3
Bukayo SakaArsenal
—
4
Cole PalmerChelsea
—
Preseason · live sportsbook feed pending

Model snapshot

Markets covered12
Season2026/27
Simulation game

Run your own simulation

Pick a fixture and run 100 fast event-based simulations. Each run uses player profiles, availability, shooting accuracy, fatigue, tactical style and match-rule checks; no video frames are rendered.


Unlock 100 fast simulations
— : —
HomeDrawAway
100-run player-profile batches are available with Scoutics Pro or Insider.
0%0 / 100

Fast simulation betting stats (100 runs)

Outcome distribution

Most likely scorelines

MarketSelectionHit rateFair odds
Hit-rate colour: green ≥ 60%, amber 40–59%, red < 40%.
Picks two different EPL clubs and resets formations to their defaults.

Live Leagues

HIGHLIGHTLY Updated 2026-08-31 10:33 UTC

Highest Expected Outcomes

Selection Match Exp.

Table Rankings

# Team Record Pts Notes

Schedule & Scores

Match Score Time Status
CRY v MCI - 08-28 Upcoming
LIV v NFO - 08-29 Upcoming
BOU v EVE - 08-29 Upcoming
COV v HUL - 08-29 Upcoming
TOT v NEW - 08-29 Upcoming
CHE v BHA - 08-30 Upcoming
LEE v BRE - 08-30 Upcoming
SUN v FUL - 08-30 Upcoming
MUN v IPS - 08-30 Upcoming
AST v ARS - 19:00 Not started
AL- v AL - 17:55 Not started
AL v AL - 17:55 Not started
AL- v AL - 17:00 Not started
ZAM v PET - 17:00 Not started
COL v LLA - 16:15 Not started
PYU v ARA - 16:00 Not started
World Cup 2026 archive

Scoutics pregame forecast

Manchester City to win

Updated 2026-08-31 10:33 UTC
Snapshot pred_7065948260a28d4d26e13560
Model probability55%
Fair odds1.83 decimal
ConfidenceLow
Replay score0–0
Home / draw / away40 / 5 / 55%
Data statusLimited
Market sourceNo verified sportsbook market connected
Model edgeMarket unavailable

Seeded engine replay — not a Monte Carlo score interval · The trained outcome artifact was unavailable at page load, so this forecast uses a deterministic baseline rather than triggering model training.

  • Outcome model: epl_prior_fallback
  • Current roster inputs and team-strength features
  • Model artifact unavailable — baseline projection only

Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Market edge is shown only with a verified external market source.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Score
0 - 0
Probabilities
0.108 / 0.581 / 0.311
xG
1.09 - 1.20
Manual simulation Edit teams, shapes, then run

Loaded player data overview

Source: repo.fpl(latest season snapshot)
Latest season in CSV: 2025
Snapshot rule: latest available row per player for each selected team
CRY
Players shown11
Avg price5.3
Avg xG2.04
Avg xA1.47
Avg points76.9
Matchup totals
Players shown22
Avg price6.15
Avg xG3.16
Avg xA1.77
Avg points92.7
MCI
Players shown11
Avg price7.0
Avg xG4.28
Avg xA2.06
Avg points108.5
LINEUPS
CRY
4-3-3
Vertical runners
MCI
4-3-3
Tiki-taka
1 Dean Henderson
2 Tyrick Mitchell
3 Chadi Riad Dnanou
4 Jaydee Canvot
5 Daniel Muñoz Mejía
6 Brennan Johnson
7 Adam Wharton
8 Ismaïla Sarr
9 Jørgen Strand Larsen
10 Maxence Lacroix
11 Daichi Kamada
1 Gianluigi Donnarumma
2 Nico O'Reilly
3 Marc Guéhi
4 Abdukodir Khusanov
5 Matheus Nunes
6 Jérémy Doku
7 Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva
8 Antoine Semenyo
9 Erling Haaland
10 Phil Foden
11 Rodrigo 'Rodri' Hernandez Cascante
MATCH STATS
0% 0%
POSSESSION %
0 SHOTS 0
0 ON TARGET 0
1.09 xG 1.20
0 PASSES 0
2.04 AVG xG 4.28
1.47 AVG xA 2.06
76.9 AVG PTS 108.5
£5.3m AVG PRICE £7.0m

Live simulation stats

Updates live as the match evolves.
Attack / penetration
Home AttackStyle—
Away AttackStyle—
Home Penetration—
Away Penetration—
Home Defense Style—
Defense / build / transition
Away Defense Style—
Home Build Style—
Away Build Style—
Home Transition—
Away Transition—

Loaded player data overview

Source: repo.fpl(latest season snapshot)
Latest season in CSV: 2025
Snapshot rule: latest available row per player for each selected team
CRY
Players shown11
Avg price5.3
Avg xG2.04
Avg xA1.47
Avg points76.9
Live match stats
Stat CRY MCI
Possession0%0%
Shots0 (0)0 (0)
Passes0 (0%)0 (0%)
Fouls00
Goals00
MCI
Players shown11
Avg price7.0
Avg xG4.28
Avg xA2.06
Avg points108.5

Home player phases

Color-coded live phase tracking.

Away player phases

Color-coded live phase tracking.
GAME ODDS

Game odds — model vs market

Implied decimal odds from our simulation model. Lower odds = more likely.

Model estimate. Fair or projected odds are analytical outputs, not prices Scoutics offers for a wager. Third-party market prices, when shown, may be delayed and should be verified with their stated source. See disclaimer.

Outcome Model %Model odds
CRY win 11% 9.23
Draw 58% 1.72
MCI win 31% 3.23
Live market line unavailable for this fixture — showing model odds only.
FORM & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Recent form & head-to-head

Historically relevant context for this fixture — recent results and previous meetings.
Head-to-head (last 6): CRY 0 Draw 2 MCI 4

CRY — last 5

L A EVE 0-2
L H ARS 1-2
D A BRE 2-2
L A MCI 0-3
D H EVE 2-2

MCI — last 5

W H BOU 2-1
L H AVL 1-2
D A BOU 1-1
W H CRY 3-0
W H BRE 3-0

Previous meetings

13 May 26 MCI vs CRY 3-0
14 Dec 25 CRY vs MCI 0-3
12 Apr 25 MCI vs CRY 5-2
07 Dec 24 CRY vs MCI 2-2
06 Apr 24 CRY vs MCI 2-4
16 Dec 23 MCI vs CRY 2-2