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EPL Premier League
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Neutral comparison

Prediction market vs sportsbooks

For each game, three independent numbers side by side: the price on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market (an exchange where a contract pays $1 if the outcome happens, so its price is a probability); the sportsbooks’ odds, with each book’s margin removed; and Scoutics’ forecast, calculated independently by our own model. Our forecast does not use Kalshi data.

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Market data sources

  • Powered by Kalshi Research. Kalshi prediction-market prices (probabilities), shown as the bid–ask midpoint with the bid and ask, before Kalshi’s fees.
  • SportsbooksOdds data provided by The Odds API. Moneyline odds from licensed US sportsbooks; the fair chance removes each book’s margin and combines the books.
  • ScouticsOur forecast: a statistical model of earlier final scores, saved before kickoff and graded on the forecast record. It is calculated independently and does not use Kalshi data.

Not betting advice. Prices move; each source shows when it was read. 21+ where required. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible play

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